Cheongju vs Gyeongnam
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-23 · 12:30 CET
WDDLW
WDDLDThe score model makes an Gyeongnam win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.6% vs 72.6% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheongju 1.09 – 1.22 Gyeongnam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheongju win | 32.0% | 35.2% | -3.2% |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.3% | +1.2% |
| Gyeongnam win | 38.5% | 36.5% | +2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% | 47.6% | -6.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.4% | 27.4% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 53.6% | -6.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 32.6% | -6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cheongju 48.4 / Gyeongnam 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.