Busan vs Hwaseong
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-15 · 12:30 CET
WLLLL
LWWWDThe score model makes a Busan win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.9% vs 68.3% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Busan 1.38 – 1.21 Hwaseong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Busan win | 40.3% | 41.0% | -0.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.5% | -0.2% |
| Hwaseong win | 32.4% | 31.5% | +0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 52.1% | -4.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 31.7% | -5.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 56.8% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 35.8% | +0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Busan 48.8 / Hwaseong 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.