Cobh Ramblers vs Kerry
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-10-09 · 20:45 CET
DWLDW
WLLWWThe score model makes a Cobh Ramblers win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Cobh Ramblers win — 56.4% vs 41.4% implied (+15.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cobh Ramblers 1.76 – 0.98 Kerry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobh Ramblers win | 56.4% | 41.4% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 27.7% | -5.8% |
| Kerry win | 21.7% | 30.9% | -9.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 52.7% | -1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 33.0% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 57.3% | -6.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 36.0% | -3.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cobh Ramblers 52.8 / Kerry 52.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.