Kerry vs Treaty United
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-28 · 22:45 CET
WLLWW
LWLWLThe score model made a Kerry win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kerry 1.33 – 1.07 Treaty United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry win | 43.1% | 46.7% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 27.3% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Treaty United win | 30.6% | 26.0% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 49.5% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 29.7% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 53.3% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.9% | 34.7% | -13.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kerry 50.2 / Treaty United 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.