Kerry vs UC Dublin
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
WLLWW
DDLLWThe score model made a UC Dublin win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kerry 1.17 – 1.38 UC Dublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry win | 32.4% | 35.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.6% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| UC Dublin win | 42.3% | 37.2% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 55.8% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 35.5% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 59.9% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 38.2% | -6.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kerry 49.9 / UC Dublin 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.