Flora vs Paide
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
WWDWW
LWLWWThe score model made a Flora win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flora 1.68 – 1.11 Paide.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora win | 52.0% | 35.6% | +16.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 25.1% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Paide win | 26.4% | 39.3% | -12.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 62.1% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 41.2% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 63.8% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 42.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flora 48.6 / Paide 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.