Nomme Utd vs Harju JK Laagri
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-29 · 13:30 CET
LLWLL
WLLWDThe score model made a Harju JK Laagri win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nomme Utd 1.83 – 1.87 Harju JK Laagri.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomme Utd win | 39.4% | 39.3% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.7% | 24.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Harju JK Laagri win | 41.0% | 35.8% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.5% | 67.3% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.7% | 47.7% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 70.1% | 68.2% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.4% | 46.5% | +2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nomme Utd 28.4 / Harju JK Laagri 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.