Barrow vs Carlisle
National League, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
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DWWWWThe score model makes a Barrow win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Barrow win — 45.4% vs 30.9% implied (+14.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barrow 1.60 – 1.25 Carlisle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 45.4% | 30.9% | +14.5% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.4% | -1.8% |
| Carlisle win | 30.0% | 42.7% | -12.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 58.6% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 38.3% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 61.8% | -4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 39.6% | -4.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Barrow 15.4 / Carlisle 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Barrow vs Carlisle in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.