Worthing vs Solihull Moors
National League, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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WLLWLThe score model makes a Worthing win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Worthing win — 59.4% vs 48.3% implied (+11.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Worthing 2.24 – 1.27 Solihull Moors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing win | 59.4% | 48.3% | +11.1% |
| Draw | 19.8% | 23.4% | -3.6% |
| Solihull Moors win | 20.8% | 28.3% | -7.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | 64.9% | +3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.6% | 45.2% | +1.3% |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | 66.2% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 44.7% | -3.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Worthing 11.4 / Solihull Moors 60.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.