Merthyr Town vs Chorley
National League North, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LWWDL
DLWLWThe score model made a Merthyr Town win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Merthyr Town 1.89 – 1.66 Chorley.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town win | 43.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Chorley win | 34.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.4% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Merthyr Town 32.7 / Chorley 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.