Worksop vs Hereford
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LWLWL
WWWWDThe score model made a Worksop win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Worksop 1.67 – 1.31 Hereford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worksop win | 46.0% | 43.1% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 27.3% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Hereford win | 30.3% | 29.7% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 53.2% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 33.2% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 57.2% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 36.9% | +5.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Worksop 32.1 / Hereford 58.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.