South Shields vs Merthyr Town
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
WWLWL
LWWDLThe score model made a South Shields win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 74%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: South Shields 2.39 – 1.45 Merthyr Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Shields win | 58.4% | 63.8% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.0% | 20.0% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Merthyr Town win | 22.7% | 16.2% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.8% | 66.8% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.5% | 47.6% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 69.5% | 60.7% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.1% | 46.8% | +1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: South Shields 55.9 / Merthyr Town 32.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.