South Shields vs Merthyr Town
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
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LLWLDThe score model makes a South Shields win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 74%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 69.5% vs 60.3% implied (+9.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: South Shields 2.39 – 1.45 Merthyr Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Shields win | 58.4% | 63.7% | -5.4% |
| Draw | 19.0% | 19.9% | -0.9% |
| Merthyr Town win | 22.7% | 16.4% | +6.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.8% | 66.5% | +7.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.5% | 47.6% | +5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 69.5% | 60.3% | +9.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.1% | 46.7% | +1.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: South Shields 56.1 / Merthyr Town 32.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.