Huddersfield vs Leicester
League One, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WWWWD
WWLWDThe score model makes a Huddersfield win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Huddersfield win — 54.3% vs 46.9% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Huddersfield 2.00 – 1.26 Leicester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 54.3% | 46.9% | +7.4% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 25.0% | -3.0% |
| Leicester win | 23.6% | 28.1% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 61.9% | +1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 41.5% | -0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 63.4% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.7% | 42.8% | +0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Huddersfield 50.5 / Leicester 11.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Huddersfield vs Leicester in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.