Gremio vs Internacional
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · 22:30 CET
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LWLWDThe score model made a Gremio win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gremio 1.40 – 1.04 Internacional.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio win | 44.7% | 32.2% | +12.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 30.4% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Internacional win | 27.4% | 37.3% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 41.5% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 22.2% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 49.2% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 29.3% | +4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gremio 52.7 / Internacional 52.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.