Vitoria vs Chapecoense-SC
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-09 · 01:00 CET
WDLWL
LWLDLThe score model made a Vitoria win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria 1.89 – 0.95 Chapecoense-SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria win | 58.8% | 61.9% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 22.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Chapecoense-SC win | 18.2% | 15.3% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 52.1% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 31.2% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 50.0% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 35.6% | -0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria 48.6 / Chapecoense-SC 22.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vitoria vs Chapecoense-SC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.