Internacional vs Corinthians
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-09 · 00:30 CET
LWLWD
LLLLLThe score model made an Internacional win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Internacional 1.31 – 0.97 Corinthians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional win | 44.0% | 39.2% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.0% | 32.3% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Corinthians win | 27.1% | 28.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 36.1% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 17.7% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 44.0% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 25.4% | +7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Internacional 53.3 / Corinthians 53.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Internacional vs Corinthians in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.