Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-08 · 02:30 CET
WLWLW
WWLWLThe score model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.6% vs 72.0% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.46 – 0.86 Sao Paulo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro win | 50.8% | 49.8% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.9% | +0.5% |
| Sao Paulo win | 21.7% | 23.3% | -1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 48.3% | -7.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.4% | 28.0% | -7.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 51.6% | -7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 33.1% | -4.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cruzeiro 52 / Sao Paulo 52.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.