Botafogo RJ vs Vasco
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-09 · 01:30 CET
DDWLL
LWWWDThe score model made a Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo RJ 1.97 – 1.06 Vasco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ win | 58.0% | 31.4% | +26.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 26.6% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Vasco win | 19.6% | 42.0% | -22.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 57.1% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 36.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 61.1% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 39.2% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo RJ 53.7 / Vasco 51.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.