Atletico-MG vs Bragantino
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-03 · 23:30 CET
DWLWD
WLLDLThe score model makes an Atletico-MG win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.3% vs 72.3% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico-MG 1.45 – 0.93 Bragantino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG win | 48.6% | 45.4% | +3.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0% |
| Bragantino win | 23.8% | 27.1% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 48.0% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.8% | 27.7% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 52.4% | -5.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 32.9% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atletico-MG 53.1 / Bragantino 52.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.