Vasco vs Cruzeiro
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 02:20 CET
LWLWW
WLWLWThe score model made a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vasco 1.26 – 1.33 Cruzeiro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco win | 34.7% | 40.5% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Cruzeiro win | 37.9% | 30.6% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 46.6% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 26.5% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 52.7% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 32.1% | -2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vasco 51.7 / Cruzeiro 52.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.