Mirassol vs Palmeiras
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 23:30 CET
DLWDW
WDDWDThe score model made a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mirassol 1.13 – 1.47 Palmeiras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol win | 28.8% | 26.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 28.5% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Palmeiras win | 44.3% | 45.5% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 46.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 26.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 51.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 32.4% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mirassol 37.3 / Palmeiras 52.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.