Gremio vs Chapecoense-SC
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 23:30 CET
WLLLD
WLWLDThe score model made a Gremio win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gremio 2.11 – 0.94 Chapecoense-SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio win | 63.7% | 60.8% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 23.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Chapecoense-SC win | 15.5% | 16.0% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 51.5% | +7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 30.7% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 49.6% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 35.0% | +0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gremio 50.9 / Chapecoense-SC 18.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.