Flamengo RJ vs Botafogo RJ
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 21:00 CET
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LDDWLThe score model made a Flamengo RJ win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flamengo RJ 2.04 – 0.97 Botafogo RJ.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ win | 61.8% | 66.5% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.5% | 20.2% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Botafogo RJ win | 16.7% | 13.3% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 57.6% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% | 36.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 50.9% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 39.2% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flamengo RJ 52.1 / Botafogo RJ 52.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.