Corinthians vs Santos
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 21:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Corinthians win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Corinthians 1.60 – 0.96 Santos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians win | 52.0% | 50.7% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Santos win | 22.0% | 21.5% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 43.2% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.5% | 23.4% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 47.3% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 30.0% | -0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Corinthians 52.5 / Santos 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.