Coritiba vs Corinthians
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-25 · 00:30 CET
LDLWD
WDDWLThe score model makes a Coritiba win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Coritiba win — 37.8% vs 30.5% implied (+7.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Coritiba 1.21 – 1.11 Corinthians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba win | 37.8% | 30.5% | +7.3% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 31.2% | -1.9% |
| Corinthians win | 32.9% | 38.3% | -5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 38.0% | +2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 19.4% | +0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 45.8% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 27.0% | +4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Coritiba 24.2 / Corinthians 52.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.