Coritiba vs Corinthians
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-25 · 00:30 CET
WWLDL
LLLLLThe score model made a Coritiba win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Coritiba 1.26 – 1.10 Corinthians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba win | 39.4% | 31.6% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 32.1% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Corinthians win | 31.7% | 36.2% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 35.9% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 18.0% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 44.4% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 25.5% | +6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Coritiba 25 / Corinthians 53.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.