Santos vs Mirassol
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 23:30 CET
WLDLW
WDWLLThe score model makes a Santos win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Mirassol win — 31.8% vs 23.4% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Santos 1.54 – 1.31 Mirassol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos win | 42.4% | 49.7% | -7.3% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.9% | -1.1% |
| Mirassol win | 31.8% | 23.4% | +8.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 50.1% | +4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 29.3% | +2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 53.2% | +4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 34.1% | -0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Santos 42.2 / Mirassol 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.