Chapecoense-SC vs Sao Paulo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 23:30 CET
LLDLD
LLDLDThe score model makes an Sao Paulo win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 52.1% vs 45.7% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chapecoense-SC 1.18 – 1.58 Sao Paulo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC win | 28.0% | 25.9% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.5% | -2.6% |
| Sao Paulo win | 46.1% | 45.6% | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 45.7% | +6.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 25.7% | +4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 51.1% | +4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 31.6% | -2.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chapecoense-SC 17.9 / Sao Paulo 51.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.