Chapecoense-SC vs Sao Paulo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 23:30 CET
WLWLD
WWLWLThe score model made a Sao Paulo win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chapecoense-SC 1.18 – 1.58 Sao Paulo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC win | 28.0% | 25.1% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 29.3% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Sao Paulo win | 46.0% | 45.6% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 42.0% | +10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 22.6% | +7.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 48.1% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 29.4% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chapecoense-SC 17.8 / Sao Paulo 51.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.