Bragantino vs Gremio
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
WDDLD
LLDWLThe score model makes a Bragantino win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gremio win — 25.7% vs 20.5% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bragantino 1.49 – 1.03 Gremio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino win | 47.3% | 54.1% | -6.8% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 25.4% | +1.6% |
| Gremio win | 25.7% | 20.5% | +5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 50.7% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 29.8% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 51.8% | -1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 34.5% | -0.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bragantino 51.8 / Gremio 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.