Bragantino vs Gremio
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
LLDLL
WLLLDThe score model made a Bragantino win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bragantino 1.50 – 1.03 Gremio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino win | 47.3% | 58.2% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 24.0% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Gremio win | 25.6% | 17.8% | +7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 50.4% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 29.8% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 50.3% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 35.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bragantino 51.5 / Gremio 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.