Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-18 · 00:30 CET
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WLWLWThe score model made a Corinthians win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Corinthians 1.19 – 0.97 Cruzeiro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians win | 40.4% | 41.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 31.7% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Cruzeiro win | 29.4% | 27.2% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 37.0% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.3% | 18.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 44.9% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 26.3% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Corinthians 52.9 / Cruzeiro 52 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.