Vitoria vs Botafogo RJ
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 23:30 CET
LLWDL
LDDWLThe score model made a Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria 1.11 – 1.39 Botafogo RJ.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria win | 29.5% | 41.3% | -11.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.1% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Botafogo RJ win | 42.8% | 29.6% | +13.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 47.4% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 27.4% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 53.5% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 32.6% | -2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria 46.5 / Botafogo RJ 51.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.