Vitoria vs Botafogo RJ
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 23:30 CET
WDLLL
LWDWDThe score model makes an Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Botafogo RJ win — 42.9% vs 30.2% implied (+12.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria 1.11 – 1.40 Botafogo RJ.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria win | 29.6% | 41.0% | -11.4% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.8% | -1.3% |
| Botafogo RJ win | 42.9% | 30.2% | +12.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 48.9% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 28.6% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 54.3% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 33.7% | -3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria 46.7 / Botafogo RJ 51.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.