Vasco vs Santos
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 21:00 CET
LWLWW
DWWWWThe score model made a Vasco win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vasco 1.71 – 1.21 Santos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco win | 48.4% | 48.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 27.6% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Santos win | 26.8% | 23.8% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | 47.1% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.5% | 26.5% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 51.1% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 32.6% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vasco 50.1 / Santos 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.