Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 02:00 CET
DLLDL
LLDLWThe score model makes a Sao Paulo win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 72.6% vs 66.9% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.61 – 0.91 Coritiba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo win | 53.4% | 54.9% | -1.5% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.9% | -0.2% |
| Coritiba win | 20.8% | 19.1% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 48.5% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 27.9% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 49.9% | -1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 33.1% | -5.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Paulo 51.4 / Coritiba 23.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.