Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 02:00 CET
LWWLW
WWLDLThe score model made a Sao Paulo win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.57 – 0.91 Coritiba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo win | 52.2% | 54.3% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.1% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Coritiba win | 21.4% | 18.6% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 46.3% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 25.8% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 48.8% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 32.0% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Paulo 52.2 / Coritiba 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.