Mirassol vs Flamengo RJ
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 23:30 CET
LWDWL
WWDDWThe score model makes an Flamengo RJ win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Mirassol win — 30.4% vs 23.4% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mirassol 1.19 – 1.45 Flamengo RJ.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol win | 30.4% | 23.4% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.2% | -0.4% |
| Flamengo RJ win | 42.8% | 49.4% | -6.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 48.3% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 27.9% | -0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 51.9% | +1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 33.0% | +1.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mirassol 36.4 / Flamengo RJ 51.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.