Botafogo RJ vs Fluminense
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 00:00
The score model makes a Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo RJ 1.57 – 0.97 Fluminense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ win | 51.1% | 36.7% | +14.5% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 30.0% | -4.3% |
| Fluminense win | 23.1% | 33.3% | -10.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 48.9% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% | 28.9% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 55.4% | -5.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 33.5% | -7.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo RJ 51.5 / Fluminense 52.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.