Botafogo RJ vs Fluminense
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 02:00 CET
LDDWL
WDWLWThe score model made a Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo RJ 1.55 – 0.97 Fluminense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ win | 50.5% | 41.6% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 29.4% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Fluminense win | 23.4% | 29.0% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 47.9% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 27.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 54.0% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 33.0% | -6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo RJ 52.3 / Fluminense 53.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.