Bahia vs Vasco
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 21:00 CET
WWWWL
LWLWWThe score model made a Bahia win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bahia 1.86 – 1.04 Vasco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia win | 56.3% | 47.3% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 27.3% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Vasco win | 20.7% | 25.4% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 50.1% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 29.5% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 54.3% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 34.3% | +2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bahia 51 / Vasco 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.