Bahia vs Vasco
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 19:00
The score model makes a Bahia win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bahia 1.86 – 1.04 Vasco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia win | 56.4% | 48.2% | +8.1% |
| Draw | 22.9% | 26.7% | -3.8% |
| Vasco win | 20.7% | 25.0% | -4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 51.1% | +4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 30.2% | +2.9% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 54.5% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 34.9% | +2.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bahia 51.2 / Vasco 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.