Remo vs Atletico-MG
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 21:30
The score model makes a Remo win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Remo 1.29 – 1.23 Atletico-MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remo win | 37.7% | 31.6% | +6.1% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 29.4% | -2.1% |
| Atletico-MG win | 35.0% | 39.1% | -4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 45.3% | +1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 25.0% | -0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 51.9% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 31.3% | +1.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Remo 17.2 / Atletico-MG 51.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.