Remo vs Atletico-MG
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 23:30 CET
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DWLWDThe score model made a Remo win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Remo 1.29 – 1.23 Atletico-MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remo win | 37.6% | 34.3% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 30.2% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Atletico-MG win | 35.0% | 35.5% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 43.6% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 23.7% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 50.5% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 30.2% | +2.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Remo 17.1 / Atletico-MG 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.