Segunda RFEF - Group 2 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Spain · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Barcelona B (79%), Espanyol B (16%), Osasuna B (1%). 73 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona B | 7 | 19 | 7467–82 | 79% | 54 from 27 (2.00/game) |
| Espanyol B | 6 | 13 | 6658–74 | 16% | 60 from 28 (2.14/game) |
| Osasuna B | 7 | 14 | 5749–65 | 1% | 59 from 27 (2.19/game) |
| Olot | 7 | 12 | 5749–65 | 1% | 61 from 27 (2.26/game) |
Below 1%: Terrassa, Manresa, Girona B, Ebro, Utebo FC, Reus FCR, Tudelano, Pena, Barbastro, UD Logrones B, Naxara, SD Logrones, Calamocha, Arnedo.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 244 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).