A-League 2025-2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Newcastle Jets	27	49	40.2	+8.8Outperforming ++	5	+1.6	+8.8	1:3 vs Auckland FC (+2.2)	4:5 vs Macarthur FC (-1.8)
2	Central Coast Mariners	26	32	23.9	+8.1Outperforming ++	12	+2.2	+5.9	0:1 vs Auckland FC (+2.5)	1:2 vs Brisbane Roar (-1.1)
3	Adelaide United	28	44	37.7	+6.3Outperforming ++	6	+3.0	+3.3	1:2 vs Sydney FC (+2.1)	0:1 vs Brisbane Roar (-1.7)
4	Wellington Phoenix	26	33	28.0	+5.0Outperforming	11	+1.0	+4.0	0:3 vs Brisbane Roar (+2.3)	0:1 vs Macarthur FC (-1.4)
5	Perth Glory	26	31	30.4	+0.6On expectation	10	-0.7	+1.3	1:3 vs Melbourne City (+2.2)	1:2 vs Brisbane Roar (-1.7)
6	Macarthur FC	26	34	33.8	+0.2On expectation	8	+0.2	+0.0	1:2 vs Auckland FC (+2.2)	1:3 vs Central Coast Mariners (-2.0)
7	Auckland FC	29	49	51.1	-2.1Underperforming	1	-5.3	+4.7	0:3 vs Adelaide United (+1.8)	0:1 vs Central Coast Mariners (-2.4)
8	Sydney FC	29	43	45.3	-2.3Underperforming	2	-3.2	+2.2	0:1 vs Melbourne Victory (+2.0)	0:2 vs Wellington Phoenix (-2.0)
9	Melbourne Victory	27	40	42.9	-2.9Underperforming	4	-2.3	-0.6	0:1 vs Melbourne City (+1.9)	0:1 vs Wellington Phoenix (-2.0)
10	Melbourne City	26	38	44.6	-6.6Underperforming −−	3	-3.3	-2.1	0:1 vs Sydney FC (+1.7)	1:3 vs Perth Glory (-2.0)
11	Brisbane Roar	26	26	33.7	-7.7Underperforming −−	9	-6.0	-1.7	0:1 vs Adelaide United (+2.0)	0:3 vs Wellington Phoenix (-2.1)
12	WS Wanderers	26	21	36.9	-15.9Underperforming −−	7	-6.8	-9.1	0:1 vs Melbourne Victory (+1.9)	3:2 vs Central Coast Mariners (-1.9)