A-League 2024-2025 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Auckland FC	26	53	42.5	+10.5Outperforming ++	4	+4.3	+6.2	0:2 vs Melbourne Victory (+1.8)	1:0 vs Perth Glory (-2.2)
2	Western United	26	47	38.0	+9.0Outperforming ++	6	+3.4	+5.6	3:4 vs Sydney FC (+2.3)	2:1 vs Brisbane Roar (-1.9)
3	WS Wanderers	26	46	37.8	+8.2Outperforming ++	7	-0.0	+8.2	0:2 vs Melbourne City (+2.0)	1:3 vs Central Coast Mariners (-1.7)
4	Melbourne City	26	48	43.0	+5.0Outperforming	3	+1.3	+3.7	2:3 vs Sydney FC (+1.7)	0:1 vs Newcastle Jets (-2.1)
5	Newcastle Jets	26	30	30.0	-0.0On expectation	10	-5.1	+5.1	0:1 vs Melbourne City (+2.3)	1:2 vs Wellington Phoenix (-1.9)
6	Macarthur FC	26	33	34.6	-1.6On expectation	8	-9.3	+7.6	4:5 vs Adelaide United (+2.2)	1:2 vs Newcastle Jets (-2.0)
7	Melbourne Victory	26	43	45.4	-2.4Underperforming	1	+0.7	-3.1	1:3 vs Melbourne City (+1.6)	3:4 vs Western United (-1.9)
8	Adelaide United	26	38	41.3	-3.3Underperforming	5	-6.2	+2.9	3:4 vs WS Wanderers (+1.7)	4:5 vs Macarthur FC (-2.0)
9	Wellington Phoenix	26	24	27.6	-3.6Underperforming	12	-5.2	+1.6	1:2 vs Macarthur FC (+2.1)	1:2 vs Macarthur FC (-1.7)
10	Central Coast Mariners	26	26	30.2	-4.2Underperforming	9	-5.7	+1.6	2:1 vs Sydney FC (+2.0)	0:3 vs Wellington Phoenix (-1.5)
11	Perth Glory	26	17	22.1	-5.1Underperforming −−	13	-4.7	-0.4	0:1 vs Brisbane Roar (+2.4)	0:2 vs Wellington Phoenix (-1.3)
12	Sydney FC	26	37	44.1	-7.1Underperforming −−	2	-3.4	-3.7	3:0 vs Melbourne Victory (+1.7)	3:4 vs Brisbane Roar (-2.2)
13	Brisbane Roar	26	21	29.9	-8.9Underperforming −−	11	-9.0	+0.0	3:4 vs Sydney FC (+2.4)	0:1 vs Perth Glory (-2.2)