Galatasaray vs Samsunspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-21 · 14:00 CET
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LLLLWThe score model makes a Galatasaray win the most likely outcome at 80%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Galatasaray win — 80.4% vs 78.0% implied (+2.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.95 – 0.79 Samsunspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 80.4% | 78.0% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 13.1% | 13.6% | -0.5% |
| Samsunspor win | 6.5% | 8.4% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.2% | 71.2% | +0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0% |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 53.2% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.4% | 50.0% | +2.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Galatasaray 46.1 / Samsunspor 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Galatasaray vs Samsunspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.