Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-10 · 15:00 CET
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LWLWWThe score model made a Trabzonspor win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.28 – 1.54 Trabzonspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 30.7% | 26.2% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.5% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Trabzonspor win | 42.1% | 48.3% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 57.5% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 36.1% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 59.2% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 38.3% | +1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Samsunspor 42.3 / Trabzonspor 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.