Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-09 · 19:00 CET
WWWWL
WDDWDThe score model makes a Galatasaray win the most likely outcome at 76%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 52.9% vs 50.5% implied (+2.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.65 – 0.83 Kasimpasa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 75.5% | 75.5% | +0.1% |
| Draw | 15.9% | 15.5% | +0.4% |
| Kasimpasa win | 8.6% | 9.1% | -0.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | 65.6% | +1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.9% | 45.1% | +0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 50.5% | +2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.6% | 45.2% | +1.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Galatasaray 44.8 / Kasimpasa 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.