Mardin 1969 vs Bandirmaspor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-21 · 11:30 CET
WLWWD
DLLLLThe score model makes a Mardin 1969 win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.8% vs 70.3% implied (+9.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mardin 1969 1.32 – 0.99 Bandirmaspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mardin 1969 win | 42.9% | 53.5% | -10.7% |
| Draw | 30.3% | 25.4% | +4.9% |
| Bandirmaspor win | 26.8% | 21.1% | +5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.6% | 49.9% | -9.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 29.7% | -9.5% |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 51.2% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 34.6% | -7.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Mardin 1969 12.7 / Bandirmaspor 50.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mardin 1969 vs Bandirmaspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.