Kayserispor vs Sariyer
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-21 · 14:00 CET
WDDWL
LDLLDThe score model makes a Kayserispor win the most likely outcome at 78%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kayserispor win — 78.2% vs 62.8% implied (+15.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kayserispor 2.72 – 0.74 Sariyer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 78.2% | 62.8% | +15.4% |
| Draw | 14.7% | 22.0% | -7.3% |
| Sariyer win | 7.1% | 15.2% | -8.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.2% | 53.1% | +14.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.5% | 32.6% | +12.9% |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 49.3% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.3% | 36.6% | +6.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kayserispor 12.7 / Sariyer 33.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kayserispor vs Sariyer in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.