Karagumruk vs Boluspor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-21 · 17:00 CET
LLWLW
WLLWLThe score model makes a Karagumruk win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.4% vs 61.3% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Karagumruk 2.00 – 0.89 Boluspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk win | 62.3% | 73.5% | -11.2% |
| Draw | 22.7% | 17.1% | +5.6% |
| Boluspor win | 15.0% | 9.4% | +5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 59.6% | -4.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 38.7% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 46.4% | +5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 40.8% | -0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Karagumruk 23.2 / Boluspor 50.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Karagumruk vs Boluspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.