Istanbulspor AS vs Keciorengucu
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-21 · 11:30 CET
LLLLW
DWLLWThe score model makes a Keciorengucu win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 68.5% vs 64.3% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Istanbulspor AS 1.30 – 1.53 Keciorengucu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbulspor AS win | 31.2% | 32.0% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 25.8% | +1.4% |
| Keciorengucu win | 41.7% | 42.3% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 56.2% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 35.7% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 59.3% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 38.8% | -2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Istanbulspor AS 44 / Keciorengucu 50.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Istanbulspor AS vs Keciorengucu in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.