Igdir FK vs Umraniyespor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-20 · 18:00 CET
DWWDD
LWWDWThe score model makes an Igdir FK win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Igdir FK 1.46 – 0.94 Umraniyespor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Igdir FK win | 48.0% | — | — |
| Draw | 28.8% | — | — |
| Umraniyespor win | 23.1% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Igdir FK 44.2 / Umraniyespor 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Igdir FK vs Umraniyespor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.