Istanbulspor AS vs Erokspor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-10 · 18:00 CET
LLWLL
LDLWDThe score model made an Erokspor win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Istanbulspor AS 1.39 – 1.46 Erokspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbulspor AS win | 34.9% | 23.7% | +11.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.4% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Erokspor win | 37.9% | 50.9% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 54.8% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 33.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 56.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 36.9% | +3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Istanbulspor AS 41 / Erokspor 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.