Umraniyespor vs Sariyer
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-09 · 19:00 CET
LLLWD
LDWDLThe score model made an Umraniyespor win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Umraniyespor 1.09 – 0.92 Sariyer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umraniyespor win | 37.7% | 36.9% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.0% | 28.8% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Sariyer win | 29.3% | 34.3% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.6% | 44.9% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.5% | 24.9% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.2% | 51.2% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.4% | 31.3% | -11.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Umraniyespor 46.1 / Sariyer 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.