Sivasspor vs Pendikspor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-09 · 16:00 CET
DDLLL
LLDWLThe score model made a Sivasspor win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sivasspor 1.16 – 1.01 Pendikspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor win | 37.9% | 38.6% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 28.0% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Pendikspor win | 30.3% | 33.5% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.7% | 50.1% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.3% | 29.7% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 55.2% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 33.9% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sivasspor 29.8 / Pendikspor 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sivasspor vs Pendikspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.